There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. Keep that in mind when reading the following, but also know they’re damned fun, too.
Montana and Montana State’s statistics are even more fun.
It’s fairly well known that the Grizzlies have the best rushing defense and the Bobcats have the best rushing offense, probably in the nation. Montana currently ranks fourth in rushing yards per game allowed at 84.8 per game while MSU is second in rushing offense at 302.1 yards per contest.
But a deeper dive will break those down in more detail and maybe give a hint towards who has the edge in this week’s Cat-Griz game or Brawl of the Wild or as UM quarterback Clifton McDowell hilariously called it “The Battle of the Brawl.”
The natural thing to do when looking up stats is look at the full season. But this analysis will primarily look at the last three games and the stats compiled prior to garbage time to see if there’s a more distinct trend than the season analysis provides.
The Grizzlies have been the hot team in the Big Sky Conference for at least the past three weeks. UM has outscored its last three opponents (Northern Colorado, Sacramento State and Portland State) 108-17. The Griz used some big defensive plays, some big offensive plays and some methodical play but mostly have just worn down their opposition with a stout, swarming defense.
UM scored twice on interception returns against UNC, got two huge pass plays – a 97-yard touchdown pass, a 52-yard pass that set up a TD – to beat the Hornets, then used a balanced attack – 258 passing and 231 rushing – to put down PSU. Meanwhile, the defense consistently shutdown all three teams.
In those three games, the Griz have been well above their season average (4.3) with 5.5 yards per carry and even when you take out garbage time yardage, that number was still a very good 5.0 ypc. UM quarterbacks McDowell and Keali’i Ah Yat combined for a 151.1 passer rating, which is a solid number and basically in line with how that duo has played all season. Most importantly, they have hardly turned over the ball.
Perhaps the biggest surprise about UM’s stats is that the defense has allowed 3.5 yards per carry the past three games, which is slightly above its average (2.9) on the year. The outlier in those numbers is the Sacramento State game, where the Hornets collected 149 yards on 30 carries (5.0 ypc). In that game, SAC running back Marcus Fulcher had 11 carries for 87 yards, although most came early before the Hornets inexplicably abandoned their run game before getting run out of Washington-Grizzly Stadium, 34-7.
The Bobcats, while still performing at a high level, have tapered off a bit over their last three games. In that stretch, MSU had perhaps its worst offensive run of the past few years when it couldn’t collect so much as a first down in its first three possessions against Idaho. The Bobcats went 3-and-out three straight times and the Vandals held the ball for most of the first 27 minutes of what ended up a 24-21 UI victory at the Kibbie Dome.
The Bobcats bounced back, however, and had opportunities to score on their next five drives that game only to see the first and last end in missed field goals. They seemed to get it all back by blowing out Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington at home the last two weeks, scoring 102 points in their final two regular-season home games to move to 8-2 entering Saturday’s rivalry showdown against the 9-1 Griz.
In those three games, the Bobcats have averaged 6.8 yards per carry, which is still exceptional but that’s a significant drop from their 7.9 average going into the Idaho game. Where MSU has excelled is in the passing department as quarterbacks Tommy Mellott, Sean Chambers and Jordan Reed have compiled a 177.6 rating. When you take out third-stringer Reed’s numbers, that rating elevates to 191.9.
Mellott and Chambers combined to complete 8-of-8 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns in a 41-point first half onslaught against EWU last weekend before each taking a seat to preserve themselves for this weekend’s clash.
“They find different ways to run the quarterback, that’s the basis of their offense and that opens up everything else, including the quarterbacks throwing,” Montana 12th-year head coach Bobby Hauck said. “It all starts with those two.”
MSU was primarily hanging its hat on the pass defense, which had a rating around 110 for most of the season, but over the past three weeks that stat has steadily soured. The Bobcats are allowing over 70 percent of their opponents passes to be completed and that has resulted in a rating of 153 against Idaho, Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington. Even when you remove the last second TD pass by former Griz quarterback Daniel Britt in the NAU game, MSU’s rating is still 145.1.
The surprising news for MSU lies in its run defense where the Bobcats have allowed a scant 2.5 yards per carry against Vandals, Lumberjacks and Eagles. That number is considerably lower than the 3.6 season average.
Montana State, despite losing to Idaho 24-21, have outscored their opponents 123-59 – 123-49 since halftime of the Vandals game.
The Bobcats rank first on the season in scoring offense, yards per play, yards per rush, pass efficiency offense, sacks and sacks allowed. The Grizzlies are first in scoring defense, yards allowed per play, and rush defense. They’re second by a fraction in pass efficiency defense.
The teams are dead even over the past 10 games at Washington-Grizzly Stadium with five wins apiece. Oddly enough, the teams own the only wins over the other in the month of November over the past four seasons. MSU is 15-1 during the month, while UM sits at 13-3. UM beat MSU the time they met in Missoula, 29-10 in 2021, while the Bobcats downed the Griz in 29-25 in 2018, 48-14 in 2019 and 55-21 in 2022 with the latter two scores coming in Bozeman.
Both teams were ranked in the top 10 in the nation in 2019 and 2021 and the lower ranked team – the Bobcats in 2019 and the Grizzlies in 2021 – came out on top both times. In 2011, UM took a now vacated win over MSU when the Bobcats were the No. 1 ranked team in the nation and the Grizzlies were in the top ten as well.
On Saturday, the Bobcats and Grizzlies square off for the 122nd time but the first time as Top 5 opponents. The winner of Saturday’s contest will be the outright Big Sky Conference champion, marking the first time in the 60-year history of the league that the winner of the league’s fiercest rivalry will claim both the Great Divide Trophy and the Big Sky Conference trophy.
“When I got the job, you certainly recognize the importance of this game for just this game and the opponent and what it means to the state, but additionally, we felt like, this game being the last game of the year, you want to be playing for conference title, you certainly want to be playing for how the playoffs are going to shake out,” Vigen said. “Three years into it, all three years to have it come down to this Saturday, in all those aspects, that’s what we’re working for.”
Montana State clinched an 8-0 run through the league and shared the Big Sky title with Sac State thanks to a 55-21 blasting of Montana in Bozeman. The year before, MSU was 7-0 in league play but lost 29-10 in Missoula to miss out on the league title in Vigen’s first season.
What’s it all mean? Probably not a damn thing as very few Cat-Griz/Brawl of the Wild/Battle of the Brawls have gone as expected. But it’s just a game and it’s supposed to be fun, especially the stats. The Bobcats and Grizzlies face off Saturday at noon in Missoula in what should be a very entertaining matchup filled with lies, damned lies and, or course, statistics.
