BOZEMAN, Montana — The ever-changing landscape of college football continues to evolve and perhaps the most consistent factor is the unpredictability of it all.
It’s murky out West in particular, especially with the dissolution of the Pac 12. What will become of Oregon State and Washington State? How will Oregon and Washington and USC fair in the Big Ten?
So many of the questions have no clear answer. That includes the speculation of what is the future of the Big Sky Conference and the Mountain West, the two Division I football leagues in the Mountain & Pacific time zones who are not anywhere close to getting a piece of the Power 5 pie.
Some have speculated that realignment might be a solution, particularly if the Group of Five establishes its own playoff system. But do the non FBS schools have the financial resources to play chase?
Whatever the future might hold, the Big Sky and the Mountain West have had crossover plenty of football clashes in recent years. And the Big Sky has held its own against an FBS conference that is able to offer 85 full scholarships compared to the 63 allotted to FCS schools.
“Recent history, most of the games between our conference and the Mountain West have been competitive,” Montana State head coach Brent Vigen said on Monday with a matchup at New Mexico of the Mountain West looming on the horizon for a Week 0 opener to kickoff the 2024 season.
“A few teams in our league has found a way to win a few of them each of these years. In a one-game setting, an early-season setting, I think our expectation is we can compete.
New Mexico won just 11 games over the last four years under former head coach Danny Gonzales, including posting a 5-26 record in Mountain West play. That, combined with the fact that Montana State has qualified for the Final Four of the FCS playoffs three times since 2019 and is working on a streak of playoff appearances that dates back to 2018, plus the fact that MSU is 32-9 under Vigen in three seasons even with losing four games last fall, means that the Bobcats are as decided a favorite entering Saturday’s clash at University Stadium in Albuquerque as any Big Sky team in the post-pandemic era against a Mountain West host.
“The scholarship difference certainly probably plays out throughout the course of a season and depth maybe becomes different, but I think the teams in our league schedule these games because they feel like they can compete,” Vigen said. “That’s the opportunity we have in front of us.”
Montana State opened as a 4.5-point favorite on the Las Vegas betting line. That number has since moved to 13.5 points as of press time and could move more if money continues to pour in on the Bobcats.
New Mexico has a new head coach with a well-respected reputation as a winner in Bronco Mendenhall, who led BYU to 11 straight bowl games during his time in Provo before having a harder time finding success at Virginia. The Lobos also have more than 60 new players on its roster and haven’t had a winning record since 2016.
“Regardless of level, I don’t really acknowledge level,” Mendenhall said. “I look at the quality of players, the quality of systems, the quality of coaching, the quality of the program. I’m impressed with Montana State.”
One of the most common personnel mismatches in favor of FBS squad when they play FCS opponents lies in the trenches. But Montana State, despite missing four-year starting center Justus Perkins for the opener, boasts one of the top offensive lines in the West. And Montana State’s deep defensive front, led by preseason All-American defensive end Brody Grebe is also a top-notch unit that boasts Mountain West talent, depth and pedigree.
That plus the fact that MSU has 23 seniors and a four-year starter at quarterback in Tommy Mellott helps Montana State be one of the biggest favorites in recent memory for an FCS team opening its season on the road against an FBS program.
“Anybody who we play, I hope we can compete up front and that really has to be our calling card on each side of the ball,” Vigen said. “Our ability to be successful on offense starts with our ability to have success up front and move people and get on people and stay on people. Defensively, our success starts with the ability of our front to disrupt in the run game and get after the passer.
“Our experience up front, it does make you feel like, at least starting there, is a good place to start.”
Vigen and Mendenhall have no crossover as opposing coaches. Vigen coached at Wyoming from 2014 until 2021. And while BYU was in the Mountain West for half of Mendenhall’s 12 seasons as the head coach, the Cougars moved to FBS independent status in 2011. Mendenhall went to Virginia ahead of the 2016 season.
Still, Mendenhall’s coaching tree roots — he was the defensive coordinator for Rocky Long’s New Mexico teams in the late 1990s and early 2000s — have some familiar elements to Vigen and vice versa.
Mendenhall and Long are credited as two of the primary architects of the 3-3-5 stack defense. Long went on to use the attacking scheme to great success as the head coach at San Diego State. Bobby Hauck, the head coach at Montana, worked under long for three seasons at SDSU before returning to UM after nearly a decade away. And the Griz have employed a similar defensive scheme ever since.
Regardless of familiarity between Mendenhall and Vigen, the mutual respect is apparent.
“When you are talking about Montana State, you first need to frame it as you are talking about a football program, not a football team,” Mendenhall said in his season-opening press conference. “There’s a difference. There are teams that flash in and out. There are teams that are consistent or not consistent. Once a team becomes consistent year in and year out, it starts moving toward a program and Montana State has done a really good job of establishing a program.”
In his coaching career, Mendenhall is 135-81. A total of 12 of those wins have come against FCS opponents, including an 8-0 mark during his time at BYU. He also went 4-1 against the FCS at Virginia, but the lone loss, a 37-20 drubbing at the hands of No. 4 Richmond to kick off his first season at Virginia in 2016 has stuck with him.
“The lessons… that was an impactful game, after taking over the University of Virginia, an ACC Power 5 program and after success at BYU and opening with Richmond at home, I remember walking out at warm ups and seeing Richmond and also seeing my team and I came in the locker room after warm ups and telling our coaches, ‘We are in trouble’.” Mendenhall remembered. “I was really talking about our players’ demeanor. I said go get with your guys right now.
“That’s the only FCS team that’s beaten me in my career and it was 37 to 20 and it felt more lopsided than that. They beat us soundly. That helped me understand with more clarity where we were.”
A Big Sky Conference team has beaten a Mountain West team one time in each of the last three seasons. In 2021, Eastern Washington went to UNLV and pulled out a 35-31 win to spark a 10-win playoff campaign. In 2022, Weber State crushed Utah State 35-7 on the way to a 10-win playoff campaign. And last season, Idaho destroyed Nevada 33-7 on the way to nine wins and a run to the quarterfinals of last season’s FCS playoffs.
“This is really good competition we are going to face and it’s going to test us in a lot of different ways,” Vigen said. “Whether you play a really good FCS non-conference opponent or a really good FBS opponent, you want to be tested, you want to see where you are at and we are certain New Mexico is going to provide that.”
The Big Sky has also had close calls in narrow MW losses. In 2021, Vigen’s first game at the helm at MSU resulted in a 19-16 loss at Wyoming. In 2022, Portland State had a close call before falling 21-17 to San Jose State. And last season, Idaho State pushed San Diego State before falling 36-28. EWU also gave Fresno State all it could handle before losing 34-31.
The difference in those close calls though was that only Montana State bounced back to have a playoff-worthy season. Portland State finished 2022 with a 4-7 mark. Idaho State went 3-8 last fall while Eastern Washington finished 4-8.
“We gotta go into every game with the thought process that we are going in to compete and we are going in to win,” Vigen said. “It’s that simple.
“Any time you play a talented team, a good team, a team that has depth, you need to be on for four quarters and that’s what we aim to do.”
