Every week, we’ll cover every game from around the Big Sky, going beyond the box score with analysis and thoughts on every team. This week, POWER RANKINGS! We won’t do this in this space every week, but after almost every team in the conference wrapped up their non-conference games, it’s a good time to re-evaluate where everybody stands. These are my own personal tiers and rankings; further down in the piece Colter Nuanez has a video with some of his own thoughts.
TIER 1 (CONFERENCE TITLE CONTENDERS)
MONTANA
The Griz have been exactly as advertised, although the competition has been less than stout. With a 120-21 point differential through three games, there hasn’t been much reason to bump Montana from its preseason spot atop the polls, and one very good reason to keep the Griz there in the play of transfer quarterback Lucas Johnson, who’s been shockingly effective. After three games, he’s fourth in the conference in passing yards, leading in touchdowns and completion percentage, has only thrown one interception – and is also leading the Griz in rushing yards and touchdowns while averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Johnson added another line to his resume Saturday with four total touchdowns against Indiana State, ripping the Sycamores apart with accurate throws on RPOs and dropping dimes like this important first-half touchdown – under pressure and off his back foot – to Cole Grossman.
It’s still unclear what Johnson’s deep ball looks like, but I think he can make every other throw in the book. Griz fans will have misgivings about anointing him after the last couple years at quarterback and there are certainly still sample-size and competition questions, but so far Johnson has looked like one of the best QBs in the country, let alone the conference. With the Montana defense looking unplayable (in the good, European soccer meaning of the word), that raises the Grizzlies’ ceiling considerably.
WEBER STATE
From the back of this tier in preseason, the Wildcats have made the biggest leap after eviscerating two non-competitive teams – Western Oregon and Utah Tech – but also doing the same to Utah State in Logan, running their in-state rivals out of their own building in a 35-7 win. Weber’s defense is just as good as Montana’s (these totals are hilarious – Montana’s defense has given up 14 points, Weber’s 17, nobody else in the conference has given up fewer than 70. Same for yardage allowed – Montana 219 per game, Weber 236, next best is at 329). Quarterback Bronson Barron can struggle with accuracy – he’s seventh in the Big Sky in completion percentage and has thrown three picks – but he’s also got a great arm and is second in the conference in passing yards, so he’s clearly still been effective. Jacob Sharp and Ty McPherson are emerging as a great 1-2 punch at wide receiver. All-American running back Josh Davis hasn’t broken out yet – he’s averaging just 4.7 yards per carry, which is pretty good considering his longest carry so far is just 17 yards. The Wildcats haven’t risen much in the national polls yet, but they have the look of a conference title contender.
SACRAMENTO STATE
The last two teams in this tier could go in either order. I’m taking the Hornets over (spoiler!) Montana State because they have a win over an actually competitive FCS team in Northern Iowa, avenging one of their three losses from a year ago by going on the road and handling the Panthers 37-21. UNI might be a little down this year, but Mark Farley’s team is still a hard out, especially in Cedar Falls. Sac State has a definite weakness in a defense that’s given up nearly 1,000 total yards in just two games, with 776 of those coming through the air. The Hornets have compensated with the best offense in the conference, averaging over 500 yards per game. Jake Dunniway and Asher O’Hara have continued to split time effectively at quarterback, but the real story is running back Cameron Skattebo, who would be my pick for quarter-season Big Sky offensive MVP ahead of Johnson (The full quarter-season awards slate: Defensive POY so far would be Montana’s Patrick O’Connell, Coach would be Weber’s Jay Hill, Freshman would be Idaho’s Anthony Woods, Cal Poly’s Jaden Jones or UC Davis’ Rex Connors). Despite playing just two games, Skattebo is leading the conference with 263 rushing yards – on just 21 carries. That’s 12.5 yards per, continuing his statistical hilarity from a year ago. Here’s a stat: after Skattebo at No. 1, the next 16 players on the conference’s list for rushing leaders all have more carries than he does. The first player after Skattebo with fewer carries than the Sac State back is Montana State freshman Jared White in 18th with just 93 yards.
MONTANA STATE
It’s possible that the only thing keeping the Bobcats from the top of this tier is that they played an FBS team. Their in-state rival Montana has kept its perch after playing three relatively non-competitive games, and the ‘Cats were on that track through two games before getting wiped against Oregon State in Portland over the weekend, 68-28. The Beavers are currently receiving votes in the AP Top 25 poll, and I think they’ll be in the Top 25 by the end of the year, but Montana State was completely uncompetitive – OSU scored touchdowns on nine of its 11 drives (the other two were a field-goal attempt at the end of the first half and three kneeldowns at the end of the game) and also returned a punt for a touchdown. In the end, the Bobcats stay in this tier more or less by default – they haven’t played anyone even close to their level.
TIER 2 (PLAYOFF CONTENDERS)
UC DAVIS
This is the most fun and least settled tier, with probably at least one of these teams jumping up a tier and one dropping down a tier by the time the season’s over – or even by the time we do this next. I have the Aggies at the front of the line because they gave Cal all they could handle for about a half in the opener and then very nearly knocked off No. 3 South Dakota State the next week in Brookings, scoring two touchdowns in the final four minutes but missing a 2-point conversion that would have sent the game to overtime. That’s the best performance in a loss so far this season by any Big Sky team. QB Miles Hastings is leading the league in passing yards, they have preseason Offensive Player of the Year Ulonzo Gilliam and the defense has been above average so far, led by tackling machine Rex Connors. Out of the teams in this tier, I think the Aggies have the highest potential. They’ll have to start proving me right very soon, with their next two games vs. Weber State and at Montana State, or there’s a very good chance I’m beating the drum for them in a couple weeks as the best 1-4 team in the country.
NORTHERN ARIZONA
It’s unfortunate for the Lumberjacks that their 10-3 win over Sam Houston two weeks ago doesn’t count as either an FBS win, which it would have next year, or as a ranked FCS win, which it surely would have last year. It’s still a great win. The ‘Jacks had a chance to make it two in a row the following week in their home opener against North Dakota, but gave up the winning touchdown with under a minute to go in a razor-thin loss despite outgaining the Fighting Hawks by 130 yards. If the balance tips the other way in that one, NAU is definitely ranked this week, and probably in the top 20. It’s been a bit of a weird year in Flagstaff. Returning Big Sky Freshman of the Year R.J. Martinez only broke out in the last game, throwing for 324 yards. His partner in crime, running back Kevin Daniels, hasn’t yet, with an average of just 37.7 yards per game. But the defense has been the best of the rest in the conference behind Montana and Weber State despite having no one in the top 20 in either tackles for loss or sacks, and just one player in the top 10 in tackles (linebacker Heston Lameta).
IDAHO
I’m probably the low man on the Vandals because I think they smoke-and-mirrors’ed their way to their two close Power 5 losses to Washington State and Indiana. They were outgained by an average of 95 yards in those games and benefitted from three missed field goals and three other drives that ended on turnovers inside their 30. That feels like luck, and that kind of luck tends to not hold up over the rest of the year. But those results – and a subsequent 42-14 pasting of non-scholarship Drake in their home opener – have boosted the excitement around the program. That’s the hard part. Now it’s up to first-year head coach Jason Eck to keep riding that wave. The Vandals have a star on defense in linebacker Fa’Avae Fa’Avae and sophomore quarterback Gevani McCoy has been more effective throwing the ball than anticipated – he’s completing 65.4% of his passes.
PORTLAND STATE
The Vikings could have been at the top of this tier – or at least ahead of Idaho – if they’d pulled out a game that eventually turned into a 21-17 loss in their season opener to San Jose State. PSU had a 107-total-yard advantage in that one. Bruce Barnum hasn’t gotten a chance to build off that showing though, with a trip to Husky Stadium the week after for a 52-6 loss to Washington and then a bye before the Vikings travel to Montana this week. That season-opening loss all but killed their chances of making the playoffs – their lone remaining non-conference game is against non-counter Lincoln (CA), so even if they go 6-2 in Big Sky play they’re likely not making it – but on talent they belong in this tier. The development of sophomore quarterback Dante Chachere will be key going forward.
EASTERN WASHINGTON
Like Portland State, the Eagles took an early bye, and like the Vikings, their remaining non-conference game won’t help them, as they’re headed to the Swamp in two weeks to get ripped apart by Florida. That comes in the middle of a brutal stretch of conference games, as EWU plays Montana State the week before and Weber State and then Sac State in the two weeks after the Florida game. The Eagles have to win at least one of those to keep their playoff hopes alive. New quarterback Gunner Talkington might be capable of pulling it off – he’s fourth in the league in yards per game, with seven touchdowns against two interceptions – and his receivers certainly are, but the defense might submarine things anyway. Even leaving aside an Oregon game in which they allowed the Ducks to score a touchdown on every drive until their final two, the Eags gave up 547 total yards in their season opener to a Tennessee State team that was picked to finish in the middle of the OVC and scored nine total points in its next two games.
TIER 3 (NON-CONTENDERS)
CAL POLY
Beau Baldwin’s offense has looked pretty decent but is struggling to score in the red zone – they’re fourth in the Big Sky in yards per game but ninth in points per game. Redshirt freshman quarterback Jaden Jones, as previously mentioned, was in the running for quarter-season Freshman of the Year but went out with a leg injury in the first quarter last week against South Dakota. Cal transfer Spencer Brasch replaced him and threw for 362 yards and three touchdowns, but the Mustangs let ‘Yotes quarterback Carson Camp recover from a beating the week before against Montana by going for 355 yards and as many touchdowns as incompletions (three). Hey, there are worse things to be than a losing team with a fun offense that can’t quite score enough to keep up with its defense.
IDAHO STATE
Last week’s 31-16 loss to Central Arkansas at the debut of newly-renovated Holt Arena wasn’t a crisis – the Bears opened their season with a perfectly credible two-touchdown loss to No. 6 Missouri State, after all – but the fact that nobody should have been expecting the Bengals to win that game is still a bit of a problem. So’s the fact that they were down 28-3 in the third quarter. So’s the fact that, in a bit of deja vu, they’re once again down to understudy quarterback Hunter Hays after Tyler Vander Waal appeared to injure the same shoulder that kept him out for a majority of last year. ISU played two FBS teams in a tough non-conference schedule, so there might be more potential, but the UCA game does not inspire confidence.
NORTHERN COLORADO
The Bears could be ahead of both Idaho State and Cal Poly – they do have a win over a school that offers football scholarships, 21-14 last week against Lamar – but they also have the worst loss of the season so far, 46-34 in their season opener against Houston Baptist. The Huskies lost by 32 to Northern Colorado last year and were picked last in the Southland’s preseason poll, one spot behind…Lamar. The Bears have turned nine recruiting stars worth of quarterbacks, Jacob Sirmon and Dylan McCaffrey, into a line of 69 for 122 (57%), five touchdowns and three interceptions. Elijah Dotson, one of the most fun backs in the league at Sac State, is now a three yards-per-carry runner in Greeley. In a bright spot, the defense has been solidly middle of the pack, set up the Bears’ only touchdown against Wyoming with a fumble recovery, and scored a crucial touchdown against Lamar when R.J. Potts took a fumble 46 yards to the house to open the scoring.
