The Montana State football team has suffered five significant defeats over the course of the last five seasons. A shallow dive reveals an obvious trend. A deep dive reveals the hidden source.
At the surface, the trend is bobbing around in the waves in the form of final scores. The Bobcats lost to North Dakota State in the 2018 FCS quarterfinals, 52-10; in the 2019 semifinals, 42-14; in the 2021 final, 38-10.
In 2022, MSU lost to South Dakota State in the 2022 semifinals, 39-18; and a year ago, in the second round to NDSU, 35-34. The margin of loss dropped precipitously from 42 to 28 to 28 again to 21 to 1 as MSU showed continuous, albeit gradual, improvement.
Beneath the maelstrom, the Bobcats were coming to grips with the source of their despair until the end of their 2022 loss to SDSU bore it clear to then-sophomore defensive end Brody Grebe.
Grebe entered the post-game press conference with a heavy frown and swollen eyes beneath his furrowed brow. He was bearing not only the weight of another beatdown by a Dakota State, as the dominant programs at North and South Dakota State are often referred to, but he was contemplating just how to get his team to accept a cold, harsh reality: they just weren’t physical enough.
In football, if there’s one thing that a player, especially a lineman, isn’t especially fond of owning, it’s that they’re not strong enough.
“As a D-line, we need to do better,” Grebe, choosing his words carefully, said. “They’re a physical, tough team and we got run over a little bit today.”
While he softened up his statement, Grebe’s words hit hard. The Bobcats set about changing their ways and the spring/summer of 2023 bore fruit almost immediately.
“I think football is a game that is won up front on both sides,” MSU safety Rylan Ortt said. “When Coach Vigen came in that was a point of emphasis, ‘we needed to get better up front’, and he slowly but surely built us up and turned this into what we are now.
“Now I feel confident we can match up with anybody up front on offense and defense.”
The 2023 season loomed large as MSU had now advanced to the Final Four of the FCS playoffs for three straight seasons, sans the abbreviated 2020 Covid season, as expectations were sky-high despite a road schedule that featured all five games against top 10 teams.
The Cats played defending champion SDSU in the second game of the season in Brookings. It would be the second time in three games, separated by an offseason, against the Jackrabbits. MSU would find out right away if their off-season work had paid off.
The Bobcats led for all but four minutes of the first 58:30 of the game. They shutout the Jackrabbits in the first half – a feat not accomplished against SDSU since 2015 – taking a 10-0 lead. Despite giving up 20 points in the second half, it was obvious that MSU had made strides in terms of physicality along its fronts. SDSU would gain just 341 yards on 51 plays after going off for 477 yards on 51 plays in the previous matchup. The Bobcat’ offense operated much of the game without quarterback Tommy Mellott, yet still came within a controversial reversed call on a would-be game-winning touchdown reception by Clevan Thomas of beating the eventual repeat national champs.
MSU then went on the road again two weeks later and annihilated Weber State 40-0 as part of a five-game winning streak that had an average margin of victory of 29 points. From there, the Bobcats began fluctuating. An aberrant 24-21 loss to Idaho that saw MSU go scoreless in the first half before rallying to take the lead only to see a game-tying field goal sail wide, then a 37-7 beat down at the hands of rival Montana dropped the Bobcats from the No. 2 ranked team nationally down to a No. 8 seed in the FCS playoffs with a game against NDSU, which was in the midst of an off year, looming for their first playoff game.
The Bobcats held the upper hand against the Bison midway through the third quarter as they were driving with a 28-21 lead and a 430-258 edge in total yards. Those numbers proved the early season game against SDSU was not an anomaly, but third quarter leads on the scoreboard and big edges in totals yards aren’t wins. As sharp as MSU looked at that point, the game turned abruptly when Mellott went down with his second severe injury against the Bison in his only two games against them.
NDSU would tie the game with 2:33 to play and it would go into overtime when the Bobcats squandered a late opportunity to get into field goal range for the win giving up a pair of sacks after driving to the NDSU 36 with 1:27 remaining in the game. In overtime, NDSU scored to take a brief lead, then MSU running back Scottre Humphrey would score on its first play, which seemed like a statement at the moment. It was short-lived as MSU’s extra point was blocked to end the game and the season for MSU.
Despite all their failings, the Bobcats showed a great deal of promise by exorcising the demon – a lack of physical prowess in the trenches – that had held them back for years. They were at least as physical as the two teams that had put them in their place from 2018 to 2022. The Bobcats sensed they were better in 2023 than their 8-4 record showed, but knew there was only one way to prove that.
One factor in MSU’s strength and mental improvements has come from strength and conditioning coach Sean Herrin’s work behind the scenes for the Bobcats.
“I think he deserves a lot of credit,” MSU fourth-year head coach Brent Vigen said of Herrin. “When we sat down back in February of ’21, it was clear to me we had the right guy. Laying out how I saw things and where we wanted to get to, a lot of it was going to come down to our ability to recruit the rights but then Sean being able to put them to work and transform them.”
But Vigen needed buy-in from all his players on both fronts, which is something an old-fashioned beatdown can lead to.
“That’s not about one or two guys, that’s about probably 15 to 20 guys over the last four years that have transformed. I know a lot was made about how we matched up in ’21 and that game maybe had to happen for us to have a barometer of where we were at that point and time. We were without (third team All-America and first team All-Big Sky) defensive tackle Chase Benson, I know that hurt us, but I know they won the line of scrimmage; that was clear that particular day. Fast forward to ’22 and the semifinal game against South Dakota State I think the same could be said that day.
“Not only have we trained really hard, but we’ve had a couple days on the field where we’re not where we needed to be and I think those days, those games, those opportunities without them, I don’t know that the motivation would be as significant. When you do see it firsthand, and you lose a game in the trenches, and it ends your season in both those years that’s a catalyst for ya.
“We’re four years into it now, we’ve recruited guys, they’ve developed, and I think we’re in a position where I feel confident our guys up front are gonna battle and hold their own. Ultimately, hold up their end to win that matchup on both sides of the ball and that will obviously be very critical to how this game plays out. I know our guys are going to go after it.”
MSU’s improvement in that area isn’t just something the MSU players and coaches recognize as NDSU head coach Tim Polasek, who coached with Vigen for several years at NDSU, pointed out.
“The DNA of their program, the things that are important to them and that are important to us, I really think Brent is doing those things at a high level,” Polasek said. “It’s his program now and you’re seeing the development of offensive line and the development of D-line. They’re obviously practicing very physical, like we do, and it’s fun to watch.”
Polasek doesn’t think it’s a big coincidence that the teams at the top are also the teams with the best offensive and defensive fronts.
“In the semifinals and this game, wow, why are those four teams (MSU, NDSU, USD and SDSU) there?” he asked rhetorically. “The line of scrimmage says a lot about how these teams play.”
Going into its title game showdown with NDSU, the 2024 season has been arguably the best in Montana State’s illustrious history, which features national titles at three different levels and 22 conference championships. Their unblemished record is backed up by an average margin of victory of 25 points per game. Only three games have been decided by 14 points or less and two of those – the season-opening 35-31 win over FBS New Mexico and 30-28 win over UC Davis in the penultimate regular season game – were made close due to some extraordinary plays by the opposition.
MSU held a 567-324 total yardage advantage on UNM, but two fumble returns for touchdowns by the Lobos had the Bobcats scrambling the whole game before it capped off the win with 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Against UCD, the Bobcats were up 30-8 and had held the Aggies to just 195 edge in total yards, only to see the Aggies score 20 points and wrack up over 223 yards in the final 6:21, giving up huge chunk plays and a successful onside kick down the stretch. While the scores were close, MSU showed it was the more physical team in both games.
“(The MSU defensive line) has been awesome,” Ortt said. “They play super hard, and they all do their job. Kenny (Eiden IV) and Brody are getting the sacks and recovering fumbles and stuff, but guys like Paul Brott and Alec Eckert in the middle just taking on doubles and doing their job. (They’re) clearing stuff up for the second level so our backers and safeties can fit in the run game. It’s been awesome playing behind those guys.”
MSU solidified that with its semifinal win over upstart South Dakota, which is another team that has followed the NDSU/SDSU model of physical line play to gain its success. Aside from two huge touchdown runs in the first 15:09 of the game, the Coyotes were held to just 35 yards rushing on its other 22 attempts as the Bobcat’ defense held them to just three points and 206 yards on 42 plays over the final 44:51. USD was coming off a game when it held UC Davis to just 89 yards rushing only to see the Bobcats rumble for 222 and hold an impressive 23:27 to 11:01 edge in time of possession when MSU scored its final points early in the third quarter.
In their last three games – since Grebe’s 2022 postgame SDSU comments – against Missouri Valley Football Conference opponents, MSU has run for 712 yards on 138 carries (5.2 yards per carry). In the previous two, they had just 208 on 68 carries (3.1 yards per carry).
Defensively, the Bobcats have improved except for gash plays as they held the same opponents to 91-661 (7.3), then 96-588 (6.1) with the latter set getting touchdown runs of 75, 55, 45 and 44 yards to skew the numbers up from 92-369 (4.0).
The Bobcats will try to continue their success in the trenches Monday night in Frisco, Tex. when they take on the Bison in the FCS title game for the second time in four years.
