Montana State has been piling up huge numbers on offense again this season as its high-powered attack has obliterated four defenses that haven’t been particularly impressive against anyone. Still, the numbers MSU has put up, especially the way they’ve put them up, are worth noticing at regardless of the competition simply because they are so eye-popping.
Likewise, the defense has had some gaudy numbers early in the season, but like the offense those numbers have come against some stale competition – sans the University of New Mexico offense.
I would propose that to evaluate MSU’s success statistically you shouldn’t look at any of the games other than New Mexico and instead of comparing that game with any games the Bobcats have played, compare it to the games the Lobos have played. Not only has MSU’s competition been weak, but the Bobcats have had their starters out for large portions of those other three games – Utah Tech, Maine, and Mercyhurst, while they played the entire game against UNM.
The Lobos have taken on Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State in that order. Against MSU the Lobo’ offense was limited due to returning two Bobcat fumbles for touchdowns, thus putting the UNM defense back on the field. So total yards in this game are not as strong of a measuring stick as are yards per play.
The Bobcats totaled 567 yards against the Lobos, which is the second most UNM has allowed and the most MSU has gained this season but the yards per play tell a different story. UNM had just 324 total yards but got them with a lot less plays. The average per play still favors MSU significantly but not by nearly double as the total yards would have you believe. MSU averaged a very good 7.2 yards per play, while the Lobos settled in at 6.0. That’s a plus-1.2 favoring MSU. (The spread for MSU was plus-1.6 against UT, plus-3.9 vs. Maine and plus-5.8 vs. Mercyhurst).
Looking at UNM’s other games, the Lobos gained just slightly less (5.9) at Arizona, but Arizona was much better than MSU with 11.0 yards per play. That’s a huge plus-5.1 for the Wildcats. The Lobos played at Auburn next, and that game was similar to their game against the Bobcats with the Tigers getting 7.6 yards per play to 6.4 for UNM, which the same plus-1.2 that MSU had against UNM.
Perhaps the best comparison is the Lobos game against Fresno State.
In this contest, the Lobos were at home, like they were versus MSU. The Bulldogs of the Mountain West come from a conference more similar to the Big Sky than the SEC or Big 12 where Auburn and Arizona reside. But even this game makes a statistical evaluator reluctant as the Lobos were hit with 17 penalties and turned the ball over three times compared to no turnovers for Fresno State.
Nonetheless, the Lobos out-gained the Bulldogs 485 yards to 345 and averaged 6.0 yards per play, the same as it had against Montana State. Their defense had its best game of the still young season, however, and limited the Bulldogs to just 5.1. That’s a plus-0.9 for the Lobos, who were a negative-1.2 against the Bobcats. A swing of 2.1 yards per play.
MSU enters league play against Idaho State leading, or near the top of, the league in nearly every statistical category thanks, in part, to its light schedule. However, if you peel off the plays that involved the Bobcats’ main units, the numbers become even more glaring.
The Bobcats lead the league in scoring at 39.8 points per game and are third in points allowed at 18.8. MSU has scored 142 of its 159 points with their main unit, but that unit has only played about 11 of the 16 quarters. Likewise the defense has only allowed 24 of the 75 points and has played about the same number of quarters. If you pro-rate those points, then the offense would be around 48 points per game and the defense would be down around 9 points per game.
MSU leads the Big Sky in both total yards with the offense at 521.5 and the defense at 276.5. The offense is over 70 yards per game ahead of the second-best team. The yards per play is at 7.6, which is nearly a yard better than the No. 2 team. The defense is nearly 30 yards per game ahead, but is tied for second in yards per play at 4.8. Reminder: these numbers include about five quarters of backup play or they would most likely be a lot more impressive.
The Bobcats lead the league in rushing as they have for at least the past three seasons. They’re second in run defense (only fifth in yards per carry) and offensive pass efficiency. MSU is third in defensive pass efficiency.
Individually, quarterback Tommy Mellott’s has been the standout in part because the ball gets spread out among the running backs and receivers, but mostly because of his passing efficiency and effectiveness – a big diversion from his running being his biggest asset. Mellott leads the BSC in pass efficiency at 167.6 and has seven touchdowns with no interceptions. He was 6-9 for 81 yards in MSU’s game-winning drive against UNM. Last week he was 5 for 5 for 75 yards and a touchdown pass in the waning moments of the first half against Mercyhurst.
Mellott’s running, by design, is down substantially. He has 23 carries through four games this season. In 2022 he had 42 carries through four games and in 2023 he had 41. His average per carry has remained consistent as he’s at 8.1 yards this year, compared to 7.5 in 2022 and 6.1 in 2023.
Scottre Humphrey is second in the Big Sky among running backs with 428 yards, while Adam Jones is sixth at 315. Both backs have been breakout players for the Bobcats this season with starter Julius Davis sidelined with an injury. Jones is also a gifted pass catcher with 128 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions. He’s fourth in all-purpose yards (443) among non-return specialists.
At the end of the day its just a lot of numbers and leading the way, statistically, doesn’t always equate to leading on the scoreboard at the end of the game. If nothing else, MSU has been a statistically impressive team. There are still eight games to be played to determine if any of that means anything in terms of winning a league title and playoff seeding.
MSU travels to Pocatello Saturday for its first Big Sky Conference tilt when it’ll face Idaho State at 4:00 in Holt Arena.
